Doji
Dragonfly
Doji with small body
Monday, July 20, 2015
Friday, July 17, 2015
when NOT to trade
There are a number of scenarios
where it's inadvisable to trade. These can be separated into
personal/environmental reasons and market reasons.
Personal reasons not to trade:
Market Reasons not to trade:
I stay out during certain economic releases. Generally speaking it is only during highly volatile ones for the pair I am trading and USD releases. So if I am trading GBP/JPY I will steer clear of trading during major GBP releases, major JPY releases, and major USD releases. On the 4hr charts most ER’s not very significant. They might push the market 10 or 20 pips in one direction but with a 50 pip stop more often the position is safe. However major news releases have the ability to move the market fifty, one hundred, or even a few hundred pips. So when a major news release is close I usually jump out of or do not enter trades. You can see news releases for the coming weeks here (http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php). The ones to steer clear of are the red USD reports and the RED reports for the pair I am trading. So for GBP/JPY any red GBP or JPY reports.
Important Speeches:
What happens when there is an important speech is traders around the world flick on Bloomberg and listen intently much like pigeons waiting for scraps of food. As soon as the speech giver gives their thoughts on the economy (even accidently) traders start taking shorts or longs and the market goes crazy. If what they hear is good they buy if it’s bad they sell. Often timesafter they hear something good they hear something bad and the currency flies up and then plummets all in the space of a few min. To be honest I am making it sound a little crazier than it is,very few speeches are actually like this. The speech givers are usually pretty careful about what they say but if they do slip up and say something prices can fly in all directions. For me it is just a whole lot safer to stay out during important speeches. But what are important speeches? Well I only really care about speeches from central bank leaders. America’s central bank leader Ben Bernanke is a dangerous man, a few wrongwords out of his mouth can have a major impact on the USD and many other currencies along with it. The British CB leader Mervyn King can do the same especially with the GBP. I also watch out for Jean-Claude Trichet’s ramblings as they can affect the Euro and other currencies along withit. So in short when one of these three men are up on the podium I do not enter any trades. You can sometimes catch speeches live on Bloomberg TV which is available free online here (http://www.bloomberg.com/streams/video/LiveBTV200.asxx).
Range Bound Periods:
Sometimes a currency pair will fall into a tightly ranging period. A tightly ranging period is when the currency pair moves far below its ADR and seems to be stuck between two points. Earlier I gave you the ADR of GBP/JPY as 281 pips, in the image below we see GBP/JPY bouncing between two lines about 120 pips apart. At times like this I tend to saty out of the market. When the currency pair picks up again and starts trading at it’s ADR I will get back into the market. Sometimes I may enter but if I do my targets will certainly be much lower.
Personal reasons not to trade:
- Get rid of all distractions. You need to be able to concentrate on the charts and not get caught up with other things going on. For instance you might be waiting for a trade and then you get distracted and when you come back to your chart you have missed the trade or you buy instead of selling etc. Distractions can be costly. However, life is full of distractions so put the cat in the hall and shut the door. Put the baby in the playpen where you can see/hear her but at least you won't have to worry that she has wandered off again... Whatever your potential distractions are, deal with them before you start to trade. Even a Ninja can lose a fight if distracted...
- Emotional times. If something emotional has happened, and you can't be subjective, then do not trade! This could be any number of things that had a negative impact on your day. It could be that you broke up with your partner to a death in the family etc... You need to be able to assess what's happening in a very short period of time, and if you are mentally elsewhere then this can have a negative impact on your trading account...
Market Reasons not to trade:
-
Bank Holidays. These are scheduled and there
is nothing you can do about it. If there is an USA or UK Bank Holiday I
don't bother trading. This is because the Banks are the biggest
participants in the Forex market. If they are on holiday then the volume
of transactions being carried out is greatly reduced. This can lead to
either really static markets or on occasion erratic markets. Either way
it does not follow the normal pattern, so I stay clear.
If however, it's a Bank Holiday in another country such as Japan or Australia then I wouldn't trade currencies that belong to those countries, e.g. jpy or aud pairs, but would still trade the gbp/usd/chf etc pairs...
-
News. There are scheduled news releases, and
economic news, that is due to be released throughout the day. These can
be found, in advance, in a number of places but the most popular one
seems to be the Forex Calendar, provided by Forex Factory.
There are 3 types of news; yellow, orange and red. Each has a different impact and is all explained in the calendar. There tend to be folders that generally are not a good idea for a new trader to try and trade. High impact, red folders, can really move the market, sometimes spiking in both directions, before settling done. These are high risk times where a lot of people get stopped out.
The one's I specifically avoid would be the ISM Manufacturing data, interest rate announcements and NFP related news announcements. However, it's not just the announcements themselves that can affect the market. The rumours surrounding what the potential numbers will be can cause the markets to move in anticipation. Therefore, it's not a good idea to trade, for the hour before or after the news. With NFP, it's a good idea not to trade that day at all.
Now that may seem extreme, but these can be the biggest account killers and can wipe out a new account in a few seconds.
-
Speeches. These tend to generally be on the
calendar as well. If specific people are talking then please do not
trade. These people include the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and BOE Governor Mervyn King.
It's important that when the BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa speaks to
pay attention. These tend to happen when people are asleep so less of a
worry. But if you are trading the Japanese session then be wary!!
These people are notorious for dropping hints about economic policy changes that are likely to happen with the currency they are responsible for. These hints cause a lot of speculation in the market and therefore a lot of price movement. These can be big currency movers as they are generally responsible for setting Interest rates in those countries, and as mentioned above interest rate announcements can cause large movements.
-
Erratic Periods. There will be times where a
currency is moving differently from normal. Perhaps it's spiking and
you don't know why. This is a good time to stay out of the market. If
you don't understand why it's moving like this then it's generally
because there is unscheduled news that has been released or leaked. This
is generally bad news and the market is still unsure as to how to react
to it. For instance, this was happening during the recent credit crunch
and the various Banks reporting that they were having major
difficulties.
-
Weekends. It's unadvisable to hold trades
over the weekend, unless your method is a long term strategy which
specifically involves holding trades for longer time frames, such as
weeks or months.
A lot can happen over the weekend. All it would take is for 1 Bank to go bust over the weekend for your position to go completely different from how you expected... A terrorist attack could happen over the weekend, which would also move the markets crazily. Now these might seem out of the norm but if you look these have happened recently on more than 1 occasion.
These types of events will generally lead to the market opening again will a large gap and generally with a large change in your position. A lot of times this can cause serious harm to your trading account balance.
-
Market close/open. Good idea to avoid these
or be wary around these times. At market close a number of trading
positions are being closed. This will lead to volatility in the currency
markets and can cause the price to move erratically. The same applies
at market open. A lot of people are opening positions as they do not
want to hold them over the weekend for the reasons stated above.
-
December and Summer Holidays. Banks tend to
trade the Forex markets at least once a day for balance sheet reasons
and can also trade a number of times throughout the day for speculation
reasons.
When I say balance sheet reasons, I mean to balance out their currency book. They need a certain amount of each currency to meet the demand of their customers, both personal and business, that will need to buy foreign currency from the bank or exchange their foreign currency for their local currency. Banks have to balance this out each day otherwise they leave themselves open to Foreign exchange risk. This means Banks are the major players in the Forex market.
So during December and the summer months a lot of Bank staff take their holidays. Therefore, Forex markets generally slow down as there are fewer participants in the marketplace. This is generally a good time for private traders such as us to take a holiday. If the markets are flat there's no point in trading so go off and enjoy yourself.
You gotta keep your body in prime fighting condition but holidays are also part of giving your mind some relaxing time to recharge those batteries, ready to go when you return.
I stay out during certain economic releases. Generally speaking it is only during highly volatile ones for the pair I am trading and USD releases. So if I am trading GBP/JPY I will steer clear of trading during major GBP releases, major JPY releases, and major USD releases. On the 4hr charts most ER’s not very significant. They might push the market 10 or 20 pips in one direction but with a 50 pip stop more often the position is safe. However major news releases have the ability to move the market fifty, one hundred, or even a few hundred pips. So when a major news release is close I usually jump out of or do not enter trades. You can see news releases for the coming weeks here (http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php). The ones to steer clear of are the red USD reports and the RED reports for the pair I am trading. So for GBP/JPY any red GBP or JPY reports.
Important Speeches:
What happens when there is an important speech is traders around the world flick on Bloomberg and listen intently much like pigeons waiting for scraps of food. As soon as the speech giver gives their thoughts on the economy (even accidently) traders start taking shorts or longs and the market goes crazy. If what they hear is good they buy if it’s bad they sell. Often timesafter they hear something good they hear something bad and the currency flies up and then plummets all in the space of a few min. To be honest I am making it sound a little crazier than it is,very few speeches are actually like this. The speech givers are usually pretty careful about what they say but if they do slip up and say something prices can fly in all directions. For me it is just a whole lot safer to stay out during important speeches. But what are important speeches? Well I only really care about speeches from central bank leaders. America’s central bank leader Ben Bernanke is a dangerous man, a few wrongwords out of his mouth can have a major impact on the USD and many other currencies along with it. The British CB leader Mervyn King can do the same especially with the GBP. I also watch out for Jean-Claude Trichet’s ramblings as they can affect the Euro and other currencies along withit. So in short when one of these three men are up on the podium I do not enter any trades. You can sometimes catch speeches live on Bloomberg TV which is available free online here (http://www.bloomberg.com/streams/video/LiveBTV200.asxx).
Range Bound Periods:
Sometimes a currency pair will fall into a tightly ranging period. A tightly ranging period is when the currency pair moves far below its ADR and seems to be stuck between two points. Earlier I gave you the ADR of GBP/JPY as 281 pips, in the image below we see GBP/JPY bouncing between two lines about 120 pips apart. At times like this I tend to saty out of the market. When the currency pair picks up again and starts trading at it’s ADR I will get back into the market. Sometimes I may enter but if I do my targets will certainly be much lower.
trend lines
Trend lines are drawn on charts to help predict the general direction of
price. They also help you to see reversals. On the chart below the
green line is a trend line.
Trend lines also help to determine good entry and exit points, and help you decide where to put your stops. Wow! They should be called magic lines, right? Well, not really. They are quite good but, like any form of analysis, if used alone they won’t make you pips. However, they make a great addition to your trading arsenal.
The main problem with trend lines is placing them on your chart. It can be a little intimidating to start with but it is quite easy to get the hang of it. In this section, you will learn how to place trend lines on your chart, and use them to make pips!
A bearish trend line is formed by connecting two or more high points.
The second swing high must be lower than the first swing high.
So placing lines is pretty easy. All you need to do is:
Once a trend line is placed and it has had a third bounce it becomes
active. Now the price should find support or resistance at the trend
line. It should have trouble breaking the line. If the price does break
the line it usually means the trend is over.
Trend lines can be placed on any time frame but they’re more effective on longer time frames. Also, the longer a trend line is active the stronger it gets.
Trend lines have many uses, but the main ones are: trend line bounces, and trend line breaks. Check out the picture below.
This trend line has had three bounce so it's now active. Now that the
price is approaching that line again, what will happen? Well the trend
line will either continue to hold or will break the line. So what
happened this time?
Wow it broke and it climbed 200 pips!
This trend line was based on three points. On the fourth approach, the trend line tried to act as resistance. If it had succeeded in acting as an area of resistance the price would have turned around and headed back down. However, the bullish movement was too strong. That means the bearish trend is over and a bullish trend is starting.
Now take a look at a trend line bounce.
Again, this trend line has had three bounces so it is now active. As you
can see in the picture, the price is approaching the line a fourth
time. The price is either going to break the trend line or bounce away
from it. This time it bounced.
Look, it bounced and went up 150 pips!
If you read about candles in the previous section, you will have noticed, that in the picture above, there was an indecision (reversal) candle on the trend line. You might technically think that because the wick was below the line the trend line was broken. Well that's where it gets tough!
There are three schools of thought on what constitutes a trend line break. Strict, moderate and lax.
Strict - These trend line users believe, that as soon as a candle passes through a trend line the line is broken, and a trade can be entered.
Moderate - These trend line users believe, that as long as a candles body does not close beyond the trend line the line is not broken. So a wick can poke through the line, like you saw in the image above, but as long as the body doesn't then the trend line is still active.
Lax - These trend line users believe, that a candle must first break through the line and then the body must close beyond. When the next candle opens beyond the line they finally consider the line broken.
Trend lines also help to determine good entry and exit points, and help you decide where to put your stops. Wow! They should be called magic lines, right? Well, not really. They are quite good but, like any form of analysis, if used alone they won’t make you pips. However, they make a great addition to your trading arsenal.
The main problem with trend lines is placing them on your chart. It can be a little intimidating to start with but it is quite easy to get the hang of it. In this section, you will learn how to place trend lines on your chart, and use them to make pips!
Placing Trend Lines
There are two main types of trend lines: bullish trend line and bearish trend lines. A bullish trend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second swing low must be higher than the first swing low. Check out the example below.
- Identify two swing low/high points
- Draw a line joining them.
Trend lines can be placed on any time frame but they’re more effective on longer time frames. Also, the longer a trend line is active the stronger it gets.
Trend lines have many uses, but the main ones are: trend line bounces, and trend line breaks. Check out the picture below.
Wow it broke and it climbed 200 pips!
This trend line was based on three points. On the fourth approach, the trend line tried to act as resistance. If it had succeeded in acting as an area of resistance the price would have turned around and headed back down. However, the bullish movement was too strong. That means the bearish trend is over and a bullish trend is starting.
Now take a look at a trend line bounce.
If you read about candles in the previous section, you will have noticed, that in the picture above, there was an indecision (reversal) candle on the trend line. You might technically think that because the wick was below the line the trend line was broken. Well that's where it gets tough!
There are three schools of thought on what constitutes a trend line break. Strict, moderate and lax.
Strict - These trend line users believe, that as soon as a candle passes through a trend line the line is broken, and a trade can be entered.
Moderate - These trend line users believe, that as long as a candles body does not close beyond the trend line the line is not broken. So a wick can poke through the line, like you saw in the image above, but as long as the body doesn't then the trend line is still active.
Lax - These trend line users believe, that a candle must first break through the line and then the body must close beyond. When the next candle opens beyond the line they finally consider the line broken.
candles
I have a method
based on the analysis of candle patterns and support and resistance lines. The
most important thing about my method is that it adapts to changing markets. A
huge part of my trading is analyzing current market conditions and trading
accordingly.
Pairs:GBP/JPY,
if you have not discovered this amazing pair yet you are missing out.
Time frame:I use
4 hour charts, and only 4 hour charts.
I use a
combination of candlestick patterns, support and resistance lines, and price
action.
Targets: My targets are on average 80 pips.
Stops: My stops are on average 40 pips.
Targets: My targets are on average 80 pips.
Stops: My stops are on average 40 pips.
Bullish candle
A bullish candle is what traders call any candle that has a bullish body. After the baby candle grows up and dies (closes) with a bullish body, it is a bullish candle. If it has a strong bullish body, it is a strong bullish candle. If it has a small bullish body, it is a weak bullish candle. Simple, right? But, think about it. The candle does not only tell you the price, it tells you the bulls are winning and they have power. There are more buyers than sellers!
This is critical information in this market. If your system tells you to go short but the candle is clearly bullish, it might be a good idea to hold off on the short. Why would anybody go short when there are more buyers in the market?
There is currently more buying pressure in the market. As long as buyers maintain enough buying pressure the candles will be bullish. If buying pressure eases and selling pressure increases bullish candles will become smaller, representing decreased bull strength.
Bearish candle
A bearish candle is any candle that has a bearish body. So what does the bearish candle tell you? It tells you there are more sellers in the market than there are buyers. It tells you that the sellers are currently in control, so a long position would not be a great idea.
There is currently more selling pressure in the market. As long as sellers maintain enough selling pressure the candles will be bearish. If selling pressure eases and buying pressure increases, bearish candles will become smaller, representing decreased bear strength.
Small lower wick, small bearish body and larger upper wick: This candle suggests that at some point while this candle was open the bulls tried to push the price up. This is what the long upper wick tells us. However, before this candle closed the bears took over and pushed the price back down. This is shown by the bearish body close.
Large lower wick, small bullish body and small upper wick: This candle suggests that at some point while this candle was open the bears tried to push the price down. This is what the long lower wick tells us. However, before this candle closed the bulls took over and pushed the price back up. This is shown by the bullish body close.
Simply put a Marubozu is a candle with no wicks. So if it's a bullish Marubozu its open is its low and its close is its high. If you see a bearish Marubozu, it's open is its high and its close is its low. A Marubozu is a strong continuation pattern. It suggests that the bulls/bears are in total control of the market.
A white (bullish) Marubozu suggests that the bulls are in total control. Think about it in terms of the battle between the bulls and the bears mentioned in the last section. When the candle opened the bears did not manage to make a new low. The bulls pushed up almost consistently closing at the high. The candle suggests that the bulls have total control.
A red (bearish) Marubozu suggests that the bears are in total control. Again, think about it in terms of the battle between the bulls and the bears. From when the candle opened the bulls could not gain a foothold. The candle moved down pretty much consistently without the bulls being able to hold the fall back. The candle closed at its low.
Marubozu candles are a very strong indication of a continuation. Since the bulls/bears had so much power when forming the Marubozu that power can be expected to carry through to the next candle.
The spinning tops body can be either bullish or bearish, but that isn't overly important. What's important is that there are two wicks to either side, that are much larger than the body. This indicates that there was a struggle between the bulls and the bears but neither had a decisive victory. So in a trend, a spinning top indicates indecision.
Spinning tops are very important in predicting reversals, as they often occur when a trend is dying out.
If a Spinning Top appears during a bullish trend it suggests that the bulls could be losing control, and the trend could be ending. This is because until the spinning top formed the bulls had a very strong bullish trend. The spinning top suggests to traders that the bears are fighting back and the bulls are struggling to continue the bullish trend.
You will often hear spinning tops being called reversal candles. The Forex4Noobs team tends to call them indecision candles instead. The term reversal candle is a bit of a misnomer. A spinning top does not indicate a definite reversal only the possibility of a reversal.
The colour of the body of a Spinning Top is not extremely important. However, it can suggest which side had more power. So if the spinning top has a white body it suggests that the bulls are slightly stronger than the bears, and vice versa.
Dojis
Strength: MediumDojis come in different shapes and forms but they are all characterized with having no body. So this means that the price opened at the same price as it closed. Many traders subscribe to the 'close enough is good enough' philosophy with Dojis. So if the candle has a body but it is very small they will still consider the candle a Doji.
A Doji is also an indecision pattern and it is similar to a spinning top. When you see a Doji on your chart, it means there is a strong fight going on between the bears and the bulls. The bulls are giving it their all, as are the bears. Nobody has won the fight yet, so it closes at open or very close to it.
Looking at the picture above a Doji tells us the same story as a
spinning top does. In fact pretty much all indecision (reversal) candles
tell you the same thing. This will be discussed in greater detail in
the next section.All Dojis indicate indecision and possible reversals, if they form in a trend. If a Doji forms in a bullish/bearish trend it suggests that the bulls/bears have become exhausted and the bears/bulls are fighting back.
Don't get too excited newbie, candles are not perfect! If you take a trade every time you see a Doji form in a trend you will end up losing big. Always remember these candles only indicate indecision not a definite reversal. To use indecision (reversal) candles effectively you need to look for confirmation candles and ideally use them with other forms of analysis.
If this were any other site right now you would probably get a very long (or sometimes short) list of generic candlestick patterns with names like 'hanging man', 'shooting star' and 'hammer'. However, this is not any other site. There are a few flaws with how candlestick patterns are taught on other Forex websites:
- Candle patterns are taught as they work in the stock market and that differs from how they work in Forex.
- Traders are taught to view candles as generic patterns but it is much more efficient to learn to read candles.
All Reversal Candlestick Patterns Are The Same
Essentially all reversal patterns are the same. When they form in a trend they always mean the same thing. They mean that a transition of power has occurred. This is not the easiest concept to understand. It will be explained here but bookmark this page and come back to it after you finished the entire education section.Reading candles is all about thinking about the candles you see on your chart in terms of the battle between the bulls and the bears. In the first section on candles, you learned the difference between a bullish and bearish candle. Now it's time to look a little deeper into what a bullish or bearish candle means, in relation to the battle between the bulls and the bears.
So this is a bearish candle, it forms when the bears have more power than the bulls. When the bears have more power than the bulls you get bearish candlestick patterns If the bears have more power for a long period of time you get a bearish trend.
Now imagine a spinning top type pattern forms in the trend. That would indicate that the pair has reached a period of indecision.
This is clearly an indecision pattern. The sliders have numbers from 0 to 10. When the bulls are at 10 it means they have a lot of power when they are at 0 it means they have no power. The same goes for the bears. So what happens when they are closely matched in terms of power? That's right, an indecision candlestick forms. So when the bulls and bears have equal amounts of power you will get indecision. As soon as one side gains power the candle will show who has gained power.
Learning a bunch of different patterns is not as useful as understanding what reversal patterns actually mean.
Lesson-5
Keeping a Trading Journal
-----------------------------
*A trading journal is your single most powerful weapon for stamping out trading mistakes, fears and weakness.
* Spot your weaknesses so you can improve on them.
* Spot your strengths so you can use them more efficiently.
* Improve your trading and refine your method.
* Track your progress.
Structure of your Journal
---------------------------
1. The Entry Date & Time <8-Jun-2011@8:09>
2. The Close Date & Time <8-Jun-2011@11:01>
3. Long / Short
4. Trade Type <reversal, breakout>
5. Pair
6. Lots
7. Risk
8. SL
9. TP
10. Entry
11. Exit
12. Profit or Loss <+30>
13. Why am I entering? <a reversal signal has been triggered>
14. My Thoughts at time of entry
15. My Thoughts at time of exit
16. Did I follow my plan?
-----------------------------
*A trading journal is your single most powerful weapon for stamping out trading mistakes, fears and weakness.
* Spot your weaknesses so you can improve on them.
* Spot your strengths so you can use them more efficiently.
* Improve your trading and refine your method.
* Track your progress.
Structure of your Journal
---------------------------
1. The Entry Date & Time <8-Jun-2011@8:09>
2. The Close Date & Time <8-Jun-2011@11:01>
3. Long / Short
4. Trade Type <reversal, breakout>
5. Pair
6. Lots
7. Risk
8. SL
9. TP
10. Entry
11. Exit
12. Profit or Loss <+30>
13. Why am I entering? <a reversal signal has been triggered>
14. My Thoughts at time of entry
15. My Thoughts at time of exit
16. Did I follow my plan?
Stocks
#ဘာေတြကရွယ္ယာေစ်းကိုအတက္အက်ျဖစ္ေစတာလဲ။
ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္တာ.က်တာရဲ႕.အဓိကအေၾကာင္းက.ေရာင္းလိုအားနဲ႔ဝယ္လိုအား(#Supply_and_Demand)ေၾကာင့္ပါ။.ရွယ္ယာတခုကို.ေရာင္းခ်င္သူက.ဝယ္ခ်င္သူေတြထက္.မ်ားလာရင္.ေစ်းက်မယ္(Supply)။.ဝယ္ခ်င္သူေတြက.ေရာင္းခ်င္သူေတြထက္မ်ားလာရင္.ေစ်းတက္မယ္(Demand)။.အေျဖက႐ိုး႐ိုးေလးေပမဲ့.ေနာက္ဆက္တြဲေမးခြန္းရဲ႕အေျဖကေတာ့.ခက္ပါတယ္။.အဲဒီေမးခြန္းက."ဒါဆိုရင္.ဘာလို႔ဝယ္ခ်င္သူပိုမ်ားရတာလဲ(သို႔မဟုတ္)ဘာလို႔ေရာင္းခ်င္သူပိုမ်ားေနရတာလဲ"။
ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္တာ.က်တာရဲ႕.အဓိကအေၾကာင္းက.ေရာင္းလိုအားနဲ႔ဝယ္လိုအား(#Supply_and_Demand)ေၾကာင့္ပါ။.ရွယ္ယာတခုကို.ေရာင္းခ်င္သူက.ဝယ္ခ်င္သူေတြထက္.မ်ားလာရင္.ေစ်းက်မယ္(Supply)။.ဝယ္ခ်င္သူေတြက.ေရာင္းခ်င္သူေတြထက္မ်ားလာရင္.ေစ်းတက္မယ္(Demand)။.အေျဖက႐ိုး႐ိုးေလးေပမဲ့.ေနာက္ဆက္တြဲေမးခြန္းရဲ႕အေျဖကေတာ့.ခက္ပါတယ္။.အဲဒီေမးခြန္းက."ဒါဆိုရင္.ဘာလို႔ဝယ္ခ်င္သူပိုမ်ားရတာလဲ(သို႔မဟုတ္)ဘာလို႔ေရာင္းခ်င္သူပိုမ်ားေနရတာလဲ"။
ဒီေမးခြန္းရဲ႕အေျဖမွန္ဟာ.ေဒၚလာသန္းခ်ီတန္ပါလိမ့္မယ္။.ဘာလို႔လဲဆိုေတာ့.အဲဒီအေျဖကိုတိတိက်က်သိသူဟာ.ဘယ္အခိ်န္ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္မယ္.က်မယ္သိေနလို႔.ရွယ္ယာေတြဝယ္.ေရာင္းလုပ္ၿပီး.အခ်ိန္တိုအတြင္း.မီလ်ံနာသူေ႒းတေယာက္ျဖစ္သြားမွာမို႔ပါ။
အဲဒီအေျဖဟာက်ယ္ျပန္႔လြန္းလို႔.အတိအက်မေျပာႏိုင္ေပမဲ့.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္ျခင္း.က်ျခင္းကိုျဖစ္ေစႏိုင္တဲ့ေအာက္မွာေရးထားတဲ့အေျခခံအေၾကာင္းေလးေတြေတာ့.သိထားသင့္တယ္ထင္လို႔ေရးျပလိုက္ပါတယ္။
#Earnings_Reports(အရံႉးအျမတ္စာရင္း)
စေတာ့ရွယ္ယာဥပေဒအရ.႐ွယ္ယာေရာင္းထားတဲ့ကုမၸဏီတိုင္းဟာ.သူတို႔ရဲ႕အရံႉး.အျမတ္စာရင္းအစီရင္ခံစာ(Earnings_Report)ကို.သံုးလတႀကိမ္ထုတ္ျပန္ေၾကျငာရပါတယ္။.ကုမၸဏီတခုဟာ.သံုးလပတ္အစီရင္ခံစာေတြမွာဆက္တိုက္အရံႉးျပေနရင္.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕အေျခအေနမေကာင္းလို႔.သူ႔ရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးက်သြားမယ္။.ဆက္တိုက္အျမတ္ျပေနတဲ့ကုမၸဏီဟာ.အေျခအေနေကာင္းေနလို႔.သူ႔ရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးတက္ပါမယ္။
#The_Economy(ႏိုင္ငံ့စီးပြားေရး)
.ႏိုင္ငံတခုရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးက်ဆင္းလာရင္.လူေတြက်ပ္တည္းလာတယ္။.ကုန္ပစၥည္းဝယ္ဖို႔လူေတြလက္ထဲမွာ.ပိုက္ဆံရွားလာမယ္။.ကားထုတ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီ.အီလက္ထေရာနစ္ပစၥည္းထုတ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီ.အလွကုန္ထုတ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီမ်ိဳးေတြ.သူတို႔ပစၥည္းကိုဝယ္မဲ့သူေလ်ာ့နဲလာမယ္။.ပစၥည္းမေရာင္းရလို႔.ကုမၸဏီေတြရဲ႕ဝင္ေငြက်လာမယ္။.အရႉံးေပၚလာမယ္။.မရွံူးေတာင္.အျမတ္နဲလာမယ္။.ဒါဆို.သူတို႔ရဲရွယ္ယာေတြေစ်းက်လာမယ္။.သူ႔ရဲ႕ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္တဲ့ႏိုင္ငံ့စီးပြားေရးေကာင္းေနရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြတက္ပါလိမ့္မယ္။
#Interest_Rates(ဘဏ္တိုးႏူန္း)
ဘဏ္ေတြဆီက.ေငြေခ်းလို႔.ေပးရတဲ့အတိုးႏူန္းနဲရင္.ကုမၸဏီေတြဟာ.ဘဏ္ေတြကေငြမ်ားမ်ားေခ်းယူၿပီး.လုပ္ငန္းထဲထဲ့ၾကမယ္။.လုပ္ငန္းေတြခ်ဲ႕လာႏိုင္မယ္။.ကုမၸဏီတိုးတက္လာရင္.လူေတြက.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေတြဝယ္ၾကလိမ့္မယ္။.ဝယ္သူမ်ားလာေတာ့.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။.ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္တဲ့ဘဏ္ေတြရဲ႕အတိုးႏူန္းျမင့္တက္လာရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်ပါလိမ့္မယ္။
#Energy_Prices(ေရနံေစ်းႏူန္း)
ကုန္ထုတ္လုပ္တဲ့စက္ရံုေတြဟာ.ဒီဇယ္.ေရနံေလာင္စာဆီေတြဝယ္သံုးၿပီး.လည္ပတ္ရပါတယ္။.ကမာၻမွာ.ေရနံေစ်းတက္လာရင္.စက္ရံုေတြဟာ.ေလာင္စာဆီေတြကိုေစ်းႀကီးႀကီးေပးၿပီး.ဝယ္သံုးရေတာ့မယ္။.စက္ရံုပိုင္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီေတြရဲ႕အျမတ္ေငြက်လာမယ္။.အျမတ္နဲလာေတာ့.သူရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေတြကို.လူေတြထုတ္ေရာင္းၾကမယ္။.ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးေတြက်လာမယ္။.ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္တဲ့ကမာၻ့ေရနံေစ်းက်ဆင္းရင္.ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးတက္ပါလိမ့္မယ္။
#Analyst_Ratings(စီးပြားေရးသံုးသပ္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္)
အလြန္ထင္ရွားေက်ာ္ၾကားတဲ့စီးပြားေရးခန္႔မွန္းပညာရွင္ေတြရွိၾကပါတယ္။.သူတို႔ရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးကို.ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္ေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားဟာ.မွန္ကန္လို႔.ေက်ာ္ၾကားတာပါ။.သူတို႔ရဲ႕ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္ေတြကို.စီးပြားေရးသမားေတြ.ရွယ္ယာဝယ္ထားသူေတြက.အၿမဲတမ္းဂ႐ုတစိုက္နားေထာင္ၾကတယ္။.ဖတ္ၾကတယ္။.အဲဒီပညာရွင္ေတြက.ႏိုင္ငံရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးက်ကိန္းရွိတယ္လို႔ေဟာလိုက္ရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြထိုးက်သြားတတ္ပါတယ္။.စီးပြားေရးေကာင္းမယ္ေဟာလ္ိုက္ရင္ေတာ့.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြထိုးတက္သြားတတ္ပါတယ္။
အထက္က.ေရးျပခဲ့တာေတြဟာ.ကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ေငြေရးေၾကးေရးအေျခအေနေၾကာင့္.ႏိုင္ငံ့စီးပြားေရးအေျခအေနေၾကာင့္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းအေျပာင္းအလဲျဖစ္ေစတာေတြပါ။
ကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ေငြေရးေၾကးေရးနဲ႔တိုက္႐ိုက္မပတ္သက္ေပမဲ့လဲ.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းအတက္အက်ျဖစ္ေစႏိုင္တဲ့အျခားအခ်က္ေတြလဲ.အမ်ားႀကီးရွိပါေသးတယ္။.အကုန္လံုးေရးျပရင္ဆံုးမွာမဟုတ္လို႔.တခ်ိဳ႕ကိုပဲ.ေအာက္မွာနမူနာေရးျပလိုက္ပါတယ္။
#အစိုးရရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးေပၚလစီနဲ႔စီးပြားေရးဥပေဒေတြကို.-႐ုတ္ျခင္းေျပာင္းလိုက္လို႔.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္မယ္(သို႔မဟုတ္)က်မယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုဟာတင္ဒါအႀကီးႀကီးအသစ္တခုရလိုက္ရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုရဲ႕ၿပိဳင္ဖက္ကုမၸဏီတခုေဒဝါလီခံသြားရရင္.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုတရားစြဲခံရရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်သြားမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုဟာတျခားကုမၸဏီတခုကိုဝယ္လိုက္ရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီထိပ္ပိုင္းအႀကီးအကဲအေျပာင္းအလဲျဖစ္ရင္.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေျပာင္းလဲသြားမယ္။.ဥပမာ..Appleကုမၸဏီရဲ႕CEOျဖစ္ခဲ့တဲ့Steve_Jobsဟာ.ကင္ဆာျဖစ္ေနၿပီဆိုတဲ့သတင္းထြက္လာတာနဲ႔.Appleရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြထိုးက်သြားခဲ့ပါတယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုအေျခအေနမေကာင္းေတာ့ဘူးဆိုတဲ့.အေျခအျမစ္မရွိတဲ့ေကာလဟာလသတင္းေၾကာင့္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်သြားႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
#ႏိုင္ငံတႏိုင္ငံမွာစစ္အာဏာသိမ္းမယ္လို႔.သတင္းထြက္လာရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်သြားလိမ့္မယ္။
#ဘာေၾကာင့္မွန္းကိုမသိပဲရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္ျခင္းက်ျခင္း။.ဥပမာ...တေလာက.တ႐ုပ္ျပည္မွာ.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြေၾကာက္ခမန္းလိလိ.ထိုးက်သြားတဲ့အေၾကာင္းရင္းကို.ကမာၻ့စီးပြားေရးပညာရွင္ေတြ.အေျဖမရွာႏိုင္ပါဘူး။
ေနာက္ထပ္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းကို.တက္ေစ.က်ေစႏိုင္တဲ့အခ်က္ေတြ.ေျမာက္မ်ားစြာက်န္ရွိပါေသးတယ္။
ဒီေလာက္ေလးဖတ္လိုက္ရင္ပဲ.#ရွယ္ယာကစားတယ္ဆိုတာေလာင္းကစားလုပ္သလိုကံစမ္းတာမဟုတ္ဖူးဆိုတာ.သေဘာေပါက္မယ္လို႔ထင္ပါတယ္။.ကံေကာင္းၿပီး.ရွယ္ယာနဲ႔ခ်မ္းသာသြားတဲ့လူေတာ့.တစ္သန္းမွာ.တေယာက္ေတာ့.ရွိခ်င္ရွိမွာေပါ့။
ရွယ္ယာနဲ႔ႀကီးပြားခ်င္ရင္.စီးပြားေရးအသိပညာရွိဖို႔လိုသလို.မိမိ႐ွယ္ယာဝယ္ထားတဲ့ကုမၸဏီအေျခအေန.ေစ်းကြက္အေျခအေန.မိမိႏိုင္ငံနဲ႔ကမာၻႀကီးရဲ႕ႏိုင္ငံေရး.စီးပြားေရးအေျခအေနေတြကို.မ်က္ေျခမျပတ္ေလ့လာေနဖို႔လိုပါတယ္။.အဲဒီလိုစီးပြားေရးအေျခခံအသိေလးလဲမရွိ.ေစ်းကြက္ကိုလဲမေလ့လာ.ႏိုင္ငံ့အေရး.ကမာၻ့အေရးလဲ.စိတ္မဝင္စားပဲ.ေလာင္းကစားလုပ္သလို.ကံစမ္းၿပီး.ရွယ္ယာကစားမယ္ဆိုရင္ေတာ့.ရွိထားတဲ့စည္းစိမ္ေလးျပဳတ္ရံုမက.အေႂကြးပတ္လည္ဝိုင္းသြားႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတာ.သတိျပဳမိေစခ်င္ပါတယ္။
#မွတ္ခ်က္။.အခုေရးျပခဲ့တာဟာ.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္ေစ.က်ေစႏိုင္တဲ့အေျခခံသေဘာနဲနဲေလးပါ။.က်ယ္က်ယ္ျပန္႔ျပန္႔သိခ်င္ရင္ေတာ့.အဲဒါေတြနဲ႔ပတ္သက္လို႔ေရးထားတဲ့စာအုပ္ေတြဖတ္ဖို႔လိုပါတယ္။.အဂၤလိပ္လိုေရးထားတဲ့စာအုပ္ေတြ.ေထာင္ေသာင္းခ်ီရွိပါတယ္။.ျမန္မာလိုေရးထားတဲ့စာအုပ္ေတြဘယ္ေလာက္ရွိ.မရွိေတာ့မသိပါ.ခင္ဗ်ာ။
ေရးသားသူ.သိန္းေဖ(ေခတၱ-စကၤာပူ)
အဲဒီအေျဖဟာက်ယ္ျပန္႔လြန္းလို႔.အတိအက်မေျပာႏိုင္ေပမဲ့.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္ျခင္း.က်ျခင္းကိုျဖစ္ေစႏိုင္တဲ့ေအာက္မွာေရးထားတဲ့အေျခခံအေၾကာင္းေလးေတြေတာ့.သိထားသင့္တယ္ထင္လို႔ေရးျပလိုက္ပါတယ္။
#Earnings_Reports(အရံႉးအျမတ္စာရင္း)
စေတာ့ရွယ္ယာဥပေဒအရ.႐ွယ္ယာေရာင္းထားတဲ့ကုမၸဏီတိုင္းဟာ.သူတို႔ရဲ႕အရံႉး.အျမတ္စာရင္းအစီရင္ခံစာ(Earnings_Report)ကို.သံုးလတႀကိမ္ထုတ္ျပန္ေၾကျငာရပါတယ္။.ကုမၸဏီတခုဟာ.သံုးလပတ္အစီရင္ခံစာေတြမွာဆက္တိုက္အရံႉးျပေနရင္.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕အေျခအေနမေကာင္းလို႔.သူ႔ရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးက်သြားမယ္။.ဆက္တိုက္အျမတ္ျပေနတဲ့ကုမၸဏီဟာ.အေျခအေနေကာင္းေနလို႔.သူ႔ရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးတက္ပါမယ္။
#The_Economy(ႏိုင္ငံ့စီးပြားေရး)
.ႏိုင္ငံတခုရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးက်ဆင္းလာရင္.လူေတြက်ပ္တည္းလာတယ္။.ကုန္ပစၥည္းဝယ္ဖို႔လူေတြလက္ထဲမွာ.ပိုက္ဆံရွားလာမယ္။.ကားထုတ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီ.အီလက္ထေရာနစ္ပစၥည္းထုတ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီ.အလွကုန္ထုတ္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီမ်ိဳးေတြ.သူတို႔ပစၥည္းကိုဝယ္မဲ့သူေလ်ာ့နဲလာမယ္။.ပစၥည္းမေရာင္းရလို႔.ကုမၸဏီေတြရဲ႕ဝင္ေငြက်လာမယ္။.အရႉံးေပၚလာမယ္။.မရွံူးေတာင္.အျမတ္နဲလာမယ္။.ဒါဆို.သူတို႔ရဲရွယ္ယာေတြေစ်းက်လာမယ္။.သူ႔ရဲ႕ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္တဲ့ႏိုင္ငံ့စီးပြားေရးေကာင္းေနရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြတက္ပါလိမ့္မယ္။
#Interest_Rates(ဘဏ္တိုးႏူန္း)
ဘဏ္ေတြဆီက.ေငြေခ်းလို႔.ေပးရတဲ့အတိုးႏူန္းနဲရင္.ကုမၸဏီေတြဟာ.ဘဏ္ေတြကေငြမ်ားမ်ားေခ်းယူၿပီး.လုပ္ငန္းထဲထဲ့ၾကမယ္။.လုပ္ငန္းေတြခ်ဲ႕လာႏိုင္မယ္။.ကုမၸဏီတိုးတက္လာရင္.လူေတြက.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေတြဝယ္ၾကလိမ့္မယ္။.ဝယ္သူမ်ားလာေတာ့.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။.ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္တဲ့ဘဏ္ေတြရဲ႕အတိုးႏူန္းျမင့္တက္လာရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်ပါလိမ့္မယ္။
#Energy_Prices(ေရနံေစ်းႏူန္း)
ကုန္ထုတ္လုပ္တဲ့စက္ရံုေတြဟာ.ဒီဇယ္.ေရနံေလာင္စာဆီေတြဝယ္သံုးၿပီး.လည္ပတ္ရပါတယ္။.ကမာၻမွာ.ေရနံေစ်းတက္လာရင္.စက္ရံုေတြဟာ.ေလာင္စာဆီေတြကိုေစ်းႀကီးႀကီးေပးၿပီး.ဝယ္သံုးရေတာ့မယ္။.စက္ရံုပိုင္တဲ့ကုမၸဏီေတြရဲ႕အျမတ္ေငြက်လာမယ္။.အျမတ္နဲလာေတာ့.သူရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေတြကို.လူေတြထုတ္ေရာင္းၾကမယ္။.ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးေတြက်လာမယ္။.ေျပာင္းျပန္ျဖစ္တဲ့ကမာၻ့ေရနံေစ်းက်ဆင္းရင္.ရွယ္ယာတန္ဖိုးတက္ပါလိမ့္မယ္။
#Analyst_Ratings(စီးပြားေရးသံုးသပ္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္)
အလြန္ထင္ရွားေက်ာ္ၾကားတဲ့စီးပြားေရးခန္႔မွန္းပညာရွင္ေတြရွိၾကပါတယ္။.သူတို႔ရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးကို.ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္ေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားဟာ.မွန္ကန္လို႔.ေက်ာ္ၾကားတာပါ။.သူတို႔ရဲ႕ႀကိဳတင္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္ေတြကို.စီးပြားေရးသမားေတြ.ရွယ္ယာဝယ္ထားသူေတြက.အၿမဲတမ္းဂ႐ုတစိုက္နားေထာင္ၾကတယ္။.ဖတ္ၾကတယ္။.အဲဒီပညာရွင္ေတြက.ႏိုင္ငံရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးက်ကိန္းရွိတယ္လို႔ေဟာလိုက္ရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြထိုးက်သြားတတ္ပါတယ္။.စီးပြားေရးေကာင္းမယ္ေဟာလ္ိုက္ရင္ေတာ့.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြထိုးတက္သြားတတ္ပါတယ္။
အထက္က.ေရးျပခဲ့တာေတြဟာ.ကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ေငြေရးေၾကးေရးအေျခအေနေၾကာင့္.ႏိုင္ငံ့စီးပြားေရးအေျခအေနေၾကာင့္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းအေျပာင္းအလဲျဖစ္ေစတာေတြပါ။
ကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ေငြေရးေၾကးေရးနဲ႔တိုက္႐ိုက္မပတ္သက္ေပမဲ့လဲ.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းအတက္အက်ျဖစ္ေစႏိုင္တဲ့အျခားအခ်က္ေတြလဲ.အမ်ားႀကီးရွိပါေသးတယ္။.အကုန္လံုးေရးျပရင္ဆံုးမွာမဟုတ္လို႔.တခ်ိဳ႕ကိုပဲ.ေအာက္မွာနမူနာေရးျပလိုက္ပါတယ္။
#အစိုးရရဲ႕စီးပြားေရးေပၚလစီနဲ႔စီးပြားေရးဥပေဒေတြကို.-႐ုတ္ျခင္းေျပာင္းလိုက္လို႔.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္မယ္(သို႔မဟုတ္)က်မယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုဟာတင္ဒါအႀကီးႀကီးအသစ္တခုရလိုက္ရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုရဲ႕ၿပိဳင္ဖက္ကုမၸဏီတခုေဒဝါလီခံသြားရရင္.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုတရားစြဲခံရရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်သြားမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုဟာတျခားကုမၸဏီတခုကိုဝယ္လိုက္ရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္လာမယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီထိပ္ပိုင္းအႀကီးအကဲအေျပာင္းအလဲျဖစ္ရင္.အဲဒီကုမၸဏီရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေျပာင္းလဲသြားမယ္။.ဥပမာ..Appleကုမၸဏီရဲ႕CEOျဖစ္ခဲ့တဲ့Steve_Jobsဟာ.ကင္ဆာျဖစ္ေနၿပီဆိုတဲ့သတင္းထြက္လာတာနဲ႔.Appleရဲ႕ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြထိုးက်သြားခဲ့ပါတယ္။
#ကုမၸဏီတခုအေျခအေနမေကာင္းေတာ့ဘူးဆိုတဲ့.အေျခအျမစ္မရွိတဲ့ေကာလဟာလသတင္းေၾကာင့္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်သြားႏိုင္ပါတယ္။
#ႏိုင္ငံတႏိုင္ငံမွာစစ္အာဏာသိမ္းမယ္လို႔.သတင္းထြက္လာရင္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းက်သြားလိမ့္မယ္။
#ဘာေၾကာင့္မွန္းကိုမသိပဲရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္ျခင္းက်ျခင္း။.ဥပမာ...တေလာက.တ႐ုပ္ျပည္မွာ.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းေတြေၾကာက္ခမန္းလိလိ.ထိုးက်သြားတဲ့အေၾကာင္းရင္းကို.ကမာၻ့စီးပြားေရးပညာရွင္ေတြ.အေျဖမရွာႏိုင္ပါဘူး။
ေနာက္ထပ္.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းကို.တက္ေစ.က်ေစႏိုင္တဲ့အခ်က္ေတြ.ေျမာက္မ်ားစြာက်န္ရွိပါေသးတယ္။
ဒီေလာက္ေလးဖတ္လိုက္ရင္ပဲ.#ရွယ္ယာကစားတယ္ဆိုတာေလာင္းကစားလုပ္သလိုကံစမ္းတာမဟုတ္ဖူးဆိုတာ.သေဘာေပါက္မယ္လို႔ထင္ပါတယ္။.ကံေကာင္းၿပီး.ရွယ္ယာနဲ႔ခ်မ္းသာသြားတဲ့လူေတာ့.တစ္သန္းမွာ.တေယာက္ေတာ့.ရွိခ်င္ရွိမွာေပါ့။
ရွယ္ယာနဲ႔ႀကီးပြားခ်င္ရင္.စီးပြားေရးအသိပညာရွိဖို႔လိုသလို.မိမိ႐ွယ္ယာဝယ္ထားတဲ့ကုမၸဏီအေျခအေန.ေစ်းကြက္အေျခအေန.မိမိႏိုင္ငံနဲ႔ကမာၻႀကီးရဲ႕ႏိုင္ငံေရး.စီးပြားေရးအေျခအေနေတြကို.မ်က္ေျခမျပတ္ေလ့လာေနဖို႔လိုပါတယ္။.အဲဒီလိုစီးပြားေရးအေျခခံအသိေလးလဲမရွိ.ေစ်းကြက္ကိုလဲမေလ့လာ.ႏိုင္ငံ့အေရး.ကမာၻ့အေရးလဲ.စိတ္မဝင္စားပဲ.ေလာင္းကစားလုပ္သလို.ကံစမ္းၿပီး.ရွယ္ယာကစားမယ္ဆိုရင္ေတာ့.ရွိထားတဲ့စည္းစိမ္ေလးျပဳတ္ရံုမက.အေႂကြးပတ္လည္ဝိုင္းသြားႏိုင္တယ္ဆိုတာ.သတိျပဳမိေစခ်င္ပါတယ္။
#မွတ္ခ်က္။.အခုေရးျပခဲ့တာဟာ.ရွယ္ယာေစ်းတက္ေစ.က်ေစႏိုင္တဲ့အေျခခံသေဘာနဲနဲေလးပါ။.က်ယ္က်ယ္ျပန္႔ျပန္႔သိခ်င္ရင္ေတာ့.အဲဒါေတြနဲ႔ပတ္သက္လို႔ေရးထားတဲ့စာအုပ္ေတြဖတ္ဖို႔လိုပါတယ္။.အဂၤလိပ္လိုေရးထားတဲ့စာအုပ္ေတြ.ေထာင္ေသာင္းခ်ီရွိပါတယ္။.ျမန္မာလိုေရးထားတဲ့စာအုပ္ေတြဘယ္ေလာက္ရွိ.မရွိေတာ့မသိပါ.ခင္ဗ်ာ။
ေရးသားသူ.သိန္းေဖ(ေခတၱ-စကၤာပူ)
Lesson-3
Trading Plan : Adding Your Overview and Goals
----------------------------------------------------------
What is your biggest desire as a trader?
I want to give up my day job and become a full time trader so I can work from home.
What is your biggest problem as a trader?
I jump from method to method and I have been following the pack.
How will you overcome your biggest problem to achieve your biggest desire?
I need to pick a method and stick to it. I also need to stop blindly following others.
How much time can you dedicate to learning to trade?
4hrs per week.
Will you be trading with money you can afford to lose?
Yes.
What are your trading goals?
1. To keep my trading simple and stress free.
2. To pick a method and stick to it.
3. To grow my account consistently this year.
What are your biggest weaknesses that will impact your trading?
1. I take revenge trade, out of anger, when I lose a few trades in a row.
2. I overtrade because I am greedy and don't know when to stop.
What rules are you going to set in place to combat your weaknesses?
1. Revenge trade - To prevent revenge trading I will implement a 3 trade rule. If I lose more than trades in a row I will take a break for a week.
2. Greed - To combat greed I will set weekly pip targets. Once I meet my targets I will stop trading.
Which currency pairs will you trade?
gbpusd, eurusd, gbpjpy, eurjpy
What time frames will you trade?
15 min, 30 min, 4 hr charts.
What do you need to do daily before you start trading?
1. Check an economic calendar for any upcoming economic news releases that could impact the market.
2. Do my analysis on my chosen pairs.
What currency pairs will you trade with this method?
gbpjpy, gbpusd, eurusd
What time frames will you trade with this method?
4 hr time frame.
What will trigger an entry?
1. Reversal trades.
2. Master candles.
3. Trend lines.
4. Scalp lines.
5. Constant lines.
How many pips from entry will you place your stop loss and target?
gbpjpy = -30 p and +40 p
gbpusd = -20 p and +30 p
eurusd = -10 p and +20 p
Will you exit before your SL or TP is hit? If so what signals would you have to see to exit?
No, I have no proper exit strategy so I will not exit early. Except for in the following scenarios.
1. If a trade runs longer than normal and an important news release is due out I may exit.
2. If my trade is open on Friday I may exit before the market closes.
Or
Yes, I will use price action analysis, on smaller time frames, to determine if I should exit a trade early.
Trading Plan : Adding Money Management
------------------------------------------------
-A mini account with $5000 in it.
-I am a conservative trader so I will be very careful with my overall risk.
or
I am a risk taker so I will be open to some risks if a high return is foreseeable.
-My goal is to grow my account from $5k to $10k in a year.
-I am willing to lose 40% of my account before I stop trading and reassess what I am doing.
-If I lose 6% (3 trades) I will take a break.
-I will risk no more than 4% per trade, using my chosen methods.
-I will not open multiple positions
or
I will open multiple positions but I will lower my normal risk per trade.
or
I will open multiple positions and I won't do anything to manage the extra risk.
Making Your Plan Dynamic
-------------------------------
1. The 364 average daily range of the pair/pairs you are trading.
2. A calculator.
3. 5 minutes of free time.
NickB Advanced Price Action Method
Ranging Market
* Reversal Trades.
* Master candles.
Trending Market
* Trend lines.
* Constant lines.
* Scalp lines.
* Master candles.
----------------------------------------------------------
What is your biggest desire as a trader?
I want to give up my day job and become a full time trader so I can work from home.
What is your biggest problem as a trader?
I jump from method to method and I have been following the pack.
How will you overcome your biggest problem to achieve your biggest desire?
I need to pick a method and stick to it. I also need to stop blindly following others.
How much time can you dedicate to learning to trade?
4hrs per week.
Will you be trading with money you can afford to lose?
Yes.
What are your trading goals?
1. To keep my trading simple and stress free.
2. To pick a method and stick to it.
3. To grow my account consistently this year.
What are your biggest weaknesses that will impact your trading?
1. I take revenge trade, out of anger, when I lose a few trades in a row.
2. I overtrade because I am greedy and don't know when to stop.
What rules are you going to set in place to combat your weaknesses?
1. Revenge trade - To prevent revenge trading I will implement a 3 trade rule. If I lose more than trades in a row I will take a break for a week.
2. Greed - To combat greed I will set weekly pip targets. Once I meet my targets I will stop trading.
Which currency pairs will you trade?
gbpusd, eurusd, gbpjpy, eurjpy
What time frames will you trade?
15 min, 30 min, 4 hr charts.
What do you need to do daily before you start trading?
1. Check an economic calendar for any upcoming economic news releases that could impact the market.
2. Do my analysis on my chosen pairs.
What currency pairs will you trade with this method?
gbpjpy, gbpusd, eurusd
What time frames will you trade with this method?
4 hr time frame.
What will trigger an entry?
1. Reversal trades.
2. Master candles.
3. Trend lines.
4. Scalp lines.
5. Constant lines.
How many pips from entry will you place your stop loss and target?
gbpjpy = -30 p and +40 p
gbpusd = -20 p and +30 p
eurusd = -10 p and +20 p
Will you exit before your SL or TP is hit? If so what signals would you have to see to exit?
No, I have no proper exit strategy so I will not exit early. Except for in the following scenarios.
1. If a trade runs longer than normal and an important news release is due out I may exit.
2. If my trade is open on Friday I may exit before the market closes.
Or
Yes, I will use price action analysis, on smaller time frames, to determine if I should exit a trade early.
Trading Plan : Adding Money Management
------------------------------------------------
-A mini account with $5000 in it.
-I am a conservative trader so I will be very careful with my overall risk.
or
I am a risk taker so I will be open to some risks if a high return is foreseeable.
-My goal is to grow my account from $5k to $10k in a year.
-I am willing to lose 40% of my account before I stop trading and reassess what I am doing.
-If I lose 6% (3 trades) I will take a break.
-I will risk no more than 4% per trade, using my chosen methods.
-I will not open multiple positions
or
I will open multiple positions but I will lower my normal risk per trade.
or
I will open multiple positions and I won't do anything to manage the extra risk.
Making Your Plan Dynamic
-------------------------------
1. The 364 average daily range of the pair/pairs you are trading.
2. A calculator.
3. 5 minutes of free time.
NickB Advanced Price Action Method
Ranging Market
* Reversal Trades.
* Master candles.
Trending Market
* Trend lines.
* Constant lines.
* Scalp lines.
* Master candles.
Lesson-1
-93% of successful traders have a trading and money management plan.
-84% of successful Forex traders keep a trading journal.
-traders who use a good broker tend to be more profitable.
-84% of successful Forex traders keep a trading journal.
-traders who use a good broker tend to be more profitable.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Sonic R ( Fratelli )
Sonic R System
This is a trend following trading system. It is based on some indicators and there is a template ready.
Indicators
Stealth LCD V10 default setting
QQE MTF
CCI indicator Period 63
34 EMA HIGH/CLOSE/LOW
50SMA
Trading time
1AM – 4 AM EST (UK session)
7AM – 11 AM EST (US session)
Pairs
I have tested: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY, GBP/JPY.
Timeframe(TF)
5M Timeframe
15M Timeframe (recommended)
I trade from 5M timeframe. So that, I can keep my SL as tight as possible (Fratelli)
Buy signal
When v10 show blue color
When QQE is above 50 line
When CCI period 63 is above 0 line above +75 or above give safer signal
When the price is above 50 SMA.
And price is above the upper white line and the slope points up
Always wait until candle close and then place your order 5-7 pips above last closed candle.
Stop Loss
I use 50sma as SL. So if price close below the 50 sma I close the trade.
Sell signal
WHEN lcd v10 show yellow colour.
When QQE is below 50 line
When CCI period 63 is below 0 line -75 or below give safer signal
When the price is below 50 SMA.
And price is below the lowest white line and the slope points down.
Always wait until candle close and then place your order 5-7 pips below last closed
candle.
Stop Loss. I use 50sma as SL. So if price close above the 50 sma I close the trade.
My dailyroutine before I start trading.
First I start to look at the 1our timeframe. Just to get an overview. Start to look from left and go to right. It will give you a view about what is going on. Is it uptrend/downtrend/ranging.
Here you see we have had a huge down move. Then a bit up and then again down. The
last couple of days we see almost ranging. So it give you an Idea that until EURJPY is
ready for a new long-term trend we can expect to go up/down up down. Its ok but it gives
us a clue about what to expect. If you look it seem like the overall bias is still down.
After that overview I go into 15M timeframe and put in some SR line (support-Resistance)
It just to give me some levels where price maybe will turn or respect the lines. We really
don’t know what will happen but for me its nice to see what price has done let’s say
yesterday, because it can give me some levels to look for..
And remember when a support or Resistance level is broken then it change.
That means if a level have reacted earlier as support and then later get broken. Then next time price is close to that price or touch it then it will react often as resistance. See chart above.
VSA (Volume spread analyzing)
VSA is a theory about how we better can see how the smart money behaves along the trading day. If we learn more about reading volume and compare it to the closed candle we time by time can see what the smart money is doing. And if we can trade in harmony with the smart money it will give us better chances to trade in profit. But it’s a diff. Stuff to explain in short, so below is a link where you can download an EBOOK about VSA.
www.fourteen-zero-one.com - /vsa/
It’s really a great stuff. So download it and read it maybe more than once to get it right. Thanks for following threw all this. I hope it can help you a bit and I want to wish you all good pip hunting.
If you have any quistions feel free to contact me for an answer.
Regards
Fratelli
This is a trend following trading system. It is based on some indicators and there is a template ready.
Indicators
Stealth LCD V10 default setting
QQE MTF
CCI indicator Period 63
34 EMA HIGH/CLOSE/LOW
50SMA
Trading time
1AM – 4 AM EST (UK session)
7AM – 11 AM EST (US session)
Pairs
I have tested: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY, GBP/JPY.
Timeframe(TF)
5M Timeframe
15M Timeframe (recommended)
I trade from 5M timeframe. So that, I can keep my SL as tight as possible (Fratelli)
Buy signal
When v10 show blue color
When QQE is above 50 line
When CCI period 63 is above 0 line above +75 or above give safer signal
When the price is above 50 SMA.
And price is above the upper white line and the slope points up
Always wait until candle close and then place your order 5-7 pips above last closed candle.
Stop Loss
I use 50sma as SL. So if price close below the 50 sma I close the trade.
WHEN lcd v10 show yellow colour.
When QQE is below 50 line
When CCI period 63 is below 0 line -75 or below give safer signal
When the price is below 50 SMA.
And price is below the lowest white line and the slope points down.
Always wait until candle close and then place your order 5-7 pips below last closed
candle.
Stop Loss. I use 50sma as SL. So if price close above the 50 sma I close the trade.
First I start to look at the 1our timeframe. Just to get an overview. Start to look from left and go to right. It will give you a view about what is going on. Is it uptrend/downtrend/ranging.
last couple of days we see almost ranging. So it give you an Idea that until EURJPY is
ready for a new long-term trend we can expect to go up/down up down. Its ok but it gives
us a clue about what to expect. If you look it seem like the overall bias is still down.
After that overview I go into 15M timeframe and put in some SR line (support-Resistance)
It just to give me some levels where price maybe will turn or respect the lines. We really
don’t know what will happen but for me its nice to see what price has done let’s say
yesterday, because it can give me some levels to look for..
Just look at the red lines I put in. It just levels where price found support and resistance.They are drawn on a 15 min timeframe from Thursday 20 Nov 2008.
See how price have reacted from the lines we draw on 15 mins chart from Thursday. And now we see how price have reacted on a 5 mins timeframe on Friday,
And remember when a support or Resistance level is broken then it change.
That means if a level have reacted earlier as support and then later get broken. Then next time price is close to that price or touch it then it will react often as resistance. See chart above.
Daily goal and money management.
I have a daily goal that I want to make 5% profit every day. That means I can double my money every 15 day. Yes you right every 15 day. SO IF IT TAKE 20-25 DAY, TO DUBBLE YOUR MONEY ITS OK IS´N IT. And I only risk a max of 2% of my money in any trade I take. Let’ssay you have an account with 1000$ it means you can risk max 20$ on any trade you open. If you trade 1minilot you can take a risk of 20 pips. If you think its too small SL then you need to lower your lot size and trade micro lots.
I have a daily goal that I want to make 5% profit every day. That means I can double my money every 15 day. Yes you right every 15 day. SO IF IT TAKE 20-25 DAY, TO DUBBLE YOUR MONEY ITS OK IS´N IT. And I only risk a max of 2% of my money in any trade I take. Let’ssay you have an account with 1000$ it means you can risk max 20$ on any trade you open. If you trade 1minilot you can take a risk of 20 pips. If you think its too small SL then you need to lower your lot size and trade micro lots.
VSA (Volume spread analyzing)
VSA is a theory about how we better can see how the smart money behaves along the trading day. If we learn more about reading volume and compare it to the closed candle we time by time can see what the smart money is doing. And if we can trade in harmony with the smart money it will give us better chances to trade in profit. But it’s a diff. Stuff to explain in short, so below is a link where you can download an EBOOK about VSA.
www.fourteen-zero-one.com - /vsa/
It’s really a great stuff. So download it and read it maybe more than once to get it right. Thanks for following threw all this. I hope it can help you a bit and I want to wish you all good pip hunting.
If you have any quistions feel free to contact me for an answer.
Regards
Fratelli
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)